The following is a cut/paste of a post I published on July 22, 2008. In it, I postulated on how negotiations between then-candidate (now president) Obama and the leader of the Iranian HateAmericaOCrats, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, might transpire if they actually met face-to-face.
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“Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has taken a hard line with the European powers and with the U.N. … and it’s working. He’s buying time; he knows that no one (short of Israel) is going to attack him. He can continue to thumb his nose at the world, with little chance of negative consequences. Even when countries are finally fed up with Iran’s posturing, the most he can expect will be a few additional sanctions.
Ahmadinejad won’t go to the bargaining table with Obama thinking that he’ll have to make concessions. He’ll go in with a hard-line position and wait to see what kind of “carrot(s)” Obama will offer so the negotiations could be touted as a “success.” Iran will be smart (from their perspective) to refuse to make any meaningful concession. Since Obama will yield, and make no mistake, Obama will yield. He’ll ease existing sanctions, send them a few billion “foreign aid” dollars, and give them nuclear power technology, if they’ll just refrain from developing a nuke.
They’ll agree, and Obama will revel in his own magnificence, believing that he’d shown the world that negotiation did work – he was right all along. He’d played showdown with Satan himself and won. People will see his face on burnt toast and in rock formations, and the faithful will pray to him. “Obama Akbar” will become a common salutation among the left, replacing “know wat ahm sayin?” in the vernacular.
But Iran will continue their program, fully aware that they’d faked Obama out of his shorts, and in another year or so, there’ll be a nuclear test. They’ve just upped the ante. Now what, President Obama? Negotiate some more?
If Israel doesn’t take them out first, it’s inevitable. And guess what? Obama will blame it all on Bush.”
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This reprise was prompted by a story that I read today (2/2/2009) on Breitbart (by AFP, dated 1/31/2009), reporting that “Obama has begun discreet talks with Iran, Syria.” These were “high-level but discreet talks,” according to Jeffrey Boutwell, an official of the Pugwash group, an international organization of scientists which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995.
I believe that Obama will want something that he can claim as a success so badly that he will give Ahmadinejad anything short of keys to the honor bar. And something touted as a “success,” a “breakthrough,” or a “softening of Iran’s hard-line policy” will be announced, and that success will justify our relaxation of sanctions and whatever other concessions he used to buy the words.
This, notwithstanding Mahmoud’s latest rants calling for the U.S. to apologize for our transgressions, our “crimes” against Iran. I also believe that Obama will agree to wording of such an “apology” that Ahmadinejad can tout as “America apologizing” while at the same time, Obama will publicly deny that any such apology was issued.
Seriously, how great must Obama’s delusion of his own capabilities be to assume that he (Obama) can succeed when all of the experienced, high-level diplomats of the U.S., the European Union and the U.N. have failed to move Iran one millimeter off of its advancement towards becoming a nuclear power?
He won’t succeed, he’ll just be arrogant, egotistical, and naive enough to believe that he did and so will his mesmerized followers.
But Ahmadinejad knows better, and he’ll just keep on truckin’ until he has the bomb. Then the “fit will hit the shan” and Obama will deny any responsibility and blame Boosh.
And you can “take that to the (failed) bank.”
Another update, Feb. 3, 2009:
Obama’s statements have placed him not in a pickle, but totally immersed at the bottom of the pickle jar. He really thought that the other U.S., EU, and UN diplomats were so far below Obama’s masterful capabilities, that his immense brainpower and personal charm would bowl over Ahmadinejad and convince him to “play nice.”
Well, that pesky Ahmadinejad just shot him the finger and raised the ante to play.
Ahmadinejad has not changed his tune. Since Obama took office Jan. 20, Ahmadinejad has repeatedly said accommodation with the U.S. is dependent not upon Obama's willingness to engage in direct talks with Iran, but upon fundamental changes in U.S. policy. The changes include a willingness to withdraw the U.S. military from Iraq and Afghanistan and drop support for Israel. That position was reiterated again recently and showed no softening of Iran’s policy.
Oh woe, oh sorrow, what is Barack to do?
Stay tuned - reports of Obama’s concessions will surely come.